Somes Bar, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

121
FXUS66 KMFR 050538
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1037 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025

.DISCUSSION...An evening update is not necessary. A few patches of
frost are possible overnight in the Illinois and Applegate
valleys, while widespread freezing temperatures for the east side
are still seasonably typical. The warming trend of day-time
temperatures will strengthen tomorrow, with above normal
temperatures expected to continue this week. Meanwhile north
winds will be veer to northeast and be breezy in the afternoon.
These winds will generally be just a touch weaker than they were
today on the west side and Cascades, but around 5 mph stronger on
the east side. The main item of interest with the next suite of
model data is the possibility of introducing light rain chances to
Coos, northern Curry, and western Douglas counties for Wednesday
afternoon into the evening. The next episode of more widespread
rainfall currently looks to hold off until next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z TAFs...VFR will prevail over the area for the
next 24 hours, except for perhaps a few clouds banking up against
the Umpqua Divide toward morning. Northerly breezes have mostly
decoupled in the valleys this evening, but remain gusty near ridge
level and also some valleys aligned with that direction. N-NE winds
are expected to pick up again in most areas Monday afternoon. Peak
gusts are expected to be mostly in the 20-30 kt range again before
subsiding Monday evening. -Spilde

&&

MARINE...Updated 830 PM Sunday, May 4, 2025...A thermal trough will
remain along the northern California coast through Monday producing
gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas. Peak winds are
expected during the afternoons and evening through Monday, with
areas of very steep and hazardous seas south of Port Orford and gale
gusts possible south of Gold Beach. Winds and seas remain elevated
but improve on Tuesday with further improvement possible by the
middle of the week. -Hermansen/Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 429 PM PDT Sun May 4 2025/

DISCUSSION...

Overview:

An overall uneventful forecast will be underway through the next 7
days. We will see above normal temperatures return to the forecast
tomorrow with a generally warming and drying trend through next
week. Not seeing much in the realm of precipitation chances the next
several days with only a small chance on Wednesday for areas mainly
north of the forecast area. This means fuels will further dry out
this week with the lack of moisture. A reminder that fire season is
quickly approaching.

Further Details:

The upper levels are noted by a blocking pattern still in place as
two areas of low pressure remain cutoff from the main flow. This has
resulted in an Omega Block type of pattern. These cutoff lows will
not have much movement over the next several days, and this will
allow for essentially a steady weather pattern. Generally speaking,
we will be under northerly flow today and tomorrow before a ridge
moves overhead as the western cutoff low finally pushes east to some
extent. The ridge will remain in place until about Wednesday when a
broad area of cyclonic flow develops over the Gulf of Alaska and
starts to push southward towards the PacNW. Small pieces of energy
may kick out from this broad area of low pressure, but not seeing
much for chances of precipitation over our forecast area during this
time. Chances are better for central to northern Cascade areas. Its
not until about Sunday when we could have a more defined upper low
close off and approach the region, so Sunday and early next week we
could have better rainfall chances. This does fall in line with
CPC`s 8-14 day outlook indicating above normal chances for
precipitation May 11 thru the 17th. Its a little early to say with
much confidence some of the finer details, but this will be our next
reasonably decent chance for rainfall.

-Guerrero

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$